If you live in Ohio, you’ve heard this phrase many times. (The last Obama victory was 50 percent to 49 precent. The report says Ohio is older, whiter and less educated than the nation at large. The film interviews campaign workers on both sides and analyzes the outcome of the results. President Obama won it in 2008 and 2012. The contents of this site are ©2020 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc. Don't leave this election's results up to the lawyers, On The Money: Dow falls more than 900 points amid fears of new COVID-19 restrictions | Democrats press Trump Org. Originally published on October 3, 2016 12:15 am, Copyright 2016 90.3 WCPN Ideastream. My home state has been stated to be the one to watch in regard to Republican versus Democrat by many political experts. Our nation is also far removed from its moral underpinnings. This is how she got it back. Hamilton County, where Cincinnati is located, used be solidly Republican, with (for example) W winning it over Gore by 11 points in 2000. That’s leading some national pundits to wonder if Ohio is as important to the political landscape as it once was. Thus the common political adage, “as Ohio goes, so goes the nation.” That seems not to be true in 2020, since Ohio is now a few points more Republican than the median electoral vote. Listen to the story here. Obama won the state twice because he did so well there. In 1960, Ohio voters favored Republican Vice President Richard Republicans do well in southern Ohio, the Appalachian region and rural areas. He too, under the proper circumstances, could be a vice presidential pick. No Democratic candidate since 1964 has won the White House without carrying Ohio. He is similar to his GOP predecessor, George Voinovich. That was U.S. House Member Joyce Beatty this summer, when she introduced Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Columbus, one of her first stops after the Democratic convention. For all you future aspiring pundits, I suggest on election night November 2016 that you pay particular attention to two areas. about president's Chinese bank account | Boeing plans thousands of additional job cuts Democrats press Trump Organization about president's Chinese bank account MORE (D) is an outspoken populist who is staunch champion for working class and union voters. Donald Trump does need Ohio to get to 270 and you see that in the approach of the two candidates.”. Obama did very well with younger voters (almost 70 percent) and of course he increased turnout amongst black voters. Democrats have been getting nearly three-fourths of the Hispanic vote in recent presidential elections. “Until it is proven otherwise it is. He clobbered his Democratic opponent in 2014 and in 2010 he beat the Democratic incumbent, Ted Strickland. Black voters are key to any Democratic win in the state. John Bricker — over President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944. The first is Cuyahoga County. But a story in the New York Times says Ohio has not fallen in step with demographic changes transforming the U.S. That’s happened very rarely but it could happen this year. Vice President Gore lost it in 2000. President Johnson won it big in 1964. But in spite of that, he thinks Ohio is still a bellwether state. COLUMBUS (WCMH) – “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation” is a phrase most Ohioans are likely familiar with by now. While Ohio has been on a redward drift over the past decade, its cities have become increasingly blue. But Mike Dawson, a political strategist and elections expert in Ohio, isn’t willing to say the state is shedding its bell weather status at this point. As goes the church, so goes the country. It is not just a coincidence that the first Republican debate of this cycle was held in Ohio. I mean it has a long history back to 1900 of being the closest to the national average.”. John Kerry lost it in 2004. Plotkin is a political analyst, a contributor to the BBC on American politics and a columnist for The Georgetowner. Thomas Dewey — and his running mate, Ohio Gov. ...So Goes The Nation is a 2006 political documentary that follows the 2004 United States presidential election between John Kerry and George W. Bush, concentrating on the battleground state of Ohio. To see more, visit. "As Maine goes, so goes the nation" was once a maxim in United States politics. And even though we don’t have a lot of immigration in Ohio, people believe those two issues, trade and immigration, are responsible for their losing jobs and whether it’s true or not, that’s what people think.”. President Carter narrowly won it in 1976 (by a mere 11,000 votes). Ohio used to have a license plate that said, "Seat Belts Fastened." Specifically, Maine's September election of a governor predicted the party outcome of the November presidential election in 22 out of the 29 presidential election years from 1820 to 1932: namely 1820-1844, 1852, 1860-1880, 1888, 1896-1908 and 1920-1932. He says Ohio might not be a bellwether state this time around. His point will be that he won Ohio twice and having him on the ticket will secure the 18 electoral votes. Hubert Humphrey lost it in 1968. John Green, a political science professor at the University of Akron, thinks there is something to the demographics point because Ohio isn’t gaining population as quickly as some other areas of the country. The bad news for Ohio statewide races is that since 2006 nobody identified on the ballot as a Democrat has won, except for Sherrod Brown and Barack Obama. Redistricting Moneyball: key legislative races. The only county he won was Lucas County, which contains Toledo.). Redistricting. Obama won the county twice, and Hillary beat Trump there by a double-digit margin. He supposedly said after receiving the returns, "Great crowds — no votes.". Since the start of the 20th century, only twice has Ohio failed to support the national Presidential winner (in 1944 and 1960). The previous was a more comfortable 52 percent to 47 percent.) But is it? He has a record of beating very well-financed Republican opponents. But if Trump wins here but ultimately loses the election, Ohio’s status as a bellwether state might be questionable for future elections. You will hear it over and over again during the 2016 election cycle: "No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio.". President Clinton won it in 1992, and won it again in 1996. Vice President Mondale lost it in 1984. Nov 03: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3% from toss-up), Sam's Article on Poll Aggregation (International Journal of Forecasting), 2016 Primary: Early signs of a Trump nomination, 2016 Primary: Simulating the 2016 GOP delegate process, 2016 Primary: GOP Polls vs. Google Correlate, 2016: Presidential results by Congressional district, Ranked-choice voting wins in court in Maine, Before the conventions, a slightly narrowing race, Effective: call your Congressperson (202-224-3121), 2018 Competitive Congressional District Finder, FiveThirtyEight polls by race (manually complete the URL), Partisanship by Congressional and legislative district, 2012-2016, Politics & Polls podcast – Sam Wang & Julian Zelizer. But Dawson doesn’t think demographics are the reason Republican Donald Trump appears, at least according to some recent polls, to have a slight lead in Ohio and is doing better here than in some other states where Republicans have typically run away with the contest. Ohio has picked the winner in all but two presidential elections since 1904. While other Democratic surrogates have been in Ohio recently, Clinton herself has not been campaigning in the Buckeye State since Labor Day. A renowned singer lost her voice after a sexual assault. The other equally crucial place is metro Columbus (Franklin County). If you want to grow up and become a pundit, I suggest you concentrate your mental energies on one state: Ohio. about president's Chinese bank account | Boeing plans thousands of additional job cuts, Democrats press Trump Organization about president's Chinese bank account, Graham wants to review ActBlue's source of small-dollar contributions, GOP blocks Schumer effort to adjourn Senate until after election, Candymakers meet virtually with lawmakers for annual fly-in, discuss Halloween safety, How to clean up the mess we've made that's orbiting the Earth, American Affairs editor: Republican Party focused on working class 'is really the only plausible future', Director of People's Action: Democrats need to embrace populism to win rural America. He lost it in 1980. Buckeye voters incorrectly picked Republican New York Gov. Niven, Dawson and Green say they think Ohio is still a battleground state in this election, no matter what its demographic makeup. The phrase described Maine's reputation as a bellwether state for presidential elections. The Buckeye State, after all, is … If you live in Ohio, you’ve heard this phrase many times. says, “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation.” And that’s largely true. Kasich, I am sure, will say to anyone who will listen that his brand of Republicanism is the way to victory in Ohio. In 2004, Ohio swung the election, and in fact no Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. This is where Cleveland is located. Their plates in 2016 should read, "As Ohio Goes, So Goes the Nation.". Exit Strategy: Is your state safe to reopen? Their plates in 2016 should read, "As Ohio Goes, So Goes the Nation." But it’s a little bit premature, though, with the very fierce, close campaign going on to make that kind of projection.”. Yet there is something more happening in Ohio. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownDon't leave this election's results up to the lawyers On The Money: Dow falls more than 900 points amid fears of new COVID-19 restrictions | Democrats press Trump Org. As Ohio goes so does the Nation? The name comes from the saying that "As Ohio goes, so goes the nation". Columbus is the biggest city in Ohio, with over 780,000 people. The good news is that in Ohio judicial candidates are not identified on the ballot by party affiliation. He also will be available for the vice presidential slot if he is not able to win the GOP nominations. Ohio has indeed been considered a bellwether state because of its reliability in predicting the political mood and makeup of the country – and predicting the winner. One downside for Democrats is the small Hispanic population. John Kasich, a proudly moderate Republican, is the governor. George McGovern lost it really big in 1972. Ohio is used to getting a lot of attention when it comes to electing presidents.

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